Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) has published its inaugural global logistics and industrial outlook, ‘Waypoint 2025’, which highlights a significant shift in the sector as global supply chains are reconfigured and cost pressures evolve. Drawing on insights from more than 120 markets worldwide, the report shows that in the near term, the balance of power is tilting towards landlords, with wide-reaching implications for occupiers, investors, and developers.
The research reveals that the proportion of tenant-favourable markets is expected to fall sharply from 52% today to just 28% by 2028. This change is being driven by constrained supply, robust demand, and rising costs across key inputs such as rent, labour, construction materials, and electricity. At the same time, landlord-favourable markets are forecast to rise from 24% to 35%, signalling a more competitive leasing environment in the years ahead for occupiers.
Report author, Sally Bruer, Head of EMEA Logistics & Industrial and Retail Research, said: “With the global logistics and industrial sector set to shift in favour of landlords, occupiers should move quickly to secure current assets or plan for new facilities, particularly in markets where vacancy rates may tighten. As markets move toward more landlord-favourable conditions, confidence in the delivery of new supply may grow, provided construction costs remain manageable.”
In the Americas, there is expected to be a significant shift away from the current tenant market conditions and towards neutral and landlord positions. Current tenor is that 72% of markets are more tenant friendly but this will reduce to just to just 23% in the next three years.
Jason Tolliver, President of Americas Logistics & Industrial, said: “We’re witnessing a rebalancing of global supply chains that is accelerating demand in key nearshoring markets like Mexico and the southeastern United States. This window of tenant-favourable conditions won’t last forever. For many occupiers, now is the time to act on mission-critical sites before the balance tips.”
Whilst 46% of markets are currently considered tenant-friendly, EMEA has the most landlord-favourable markets at 29%, largely driven by supply constraints. Around half of these markets expect a shift in tenor over the next three years with 40% (25% now) anticipating neutral conditions, suggesting a more balanced position than in recent years.
Tim Crighton, Head of Logistics & Industrial, EMEA, said: “Whilst in the immediate period, the market conditions remain tenant- favourable as businesses play a game of ‘wait and see’ following a raft of impacts to global trade and geo-politics, there is structurally low supply in the market and we expect the drivers for economic growth will support demand over a more medium term. As a result, within a three-year window we anticipate seeing many markets returning to landlord favourable conditions.”
The report also includes insights from the Asia Pacific (APAC) region, where fundamentals remain strong but market conditions are becoming more nuanced. APAC currently offers more balanced conditions, with 24% favouring landlords and 33% favouring tenants. Over the next three years, the market is expected to move away from a balanced, neutral position toward more polarising tenant- and landlord-favourable market conditions. Neutral markets are expected to decline to 29% from the current 42%, while tenant-friendly markets are anticipated to grow to 38% from 33%. Similarly, landlord-favourable markets are expected to rise to 33%, up from 24%.
Dennis Yeo, Head of Investor Services and Logistics & Industrial, APAC said: “Asia Pacific continues to demonstrate resilience, with markets such as India and Vietnam seeing sustained occupier demand. However, rising vacancy in some subregions — driven by a surge in new supply — means that a one-size-fits-all approach no longer works. Businesses must adopt granular, market-specific strategies that account for local cost structures, infrastructure readiness, and automation potential.”
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‘Waypoint 2025’ also explores how cost pressures are reshaping location strategies. Labour costs1, for example, vary significantly across regions, with average logistics and industrial wages in Switzerland nearly double the global average, while countries such as India and Vietnam remain far more cost-effective. These disparities are prompting companies to reassess their site selection criteria, taking into account not only wages but also energy reliability and the potential for automation.
Although global rental growth has slowed since its 2022 peak, more than half of all markets are still expected to see rents rise through to 2027, driven by occupier demand and new supply in select regions. Only 13% of markets are expected to see rents fall over the three-year period. In APAC, 62% of all markets are expected to see rental growth, backed by strong occupier demand; this is also the case in the Americas. In EMEA, where 60% of markets are expected to see a rise in rental levels, new supply pushing asking rents higher is a key driver of rental growth.
Furthermore, in the Americas, just 12% of markets expect an increase in vacancy rates over the next five years, while in APAC, nearly half of markets anticipate rising vacancy. EMEA is expected to remain relatively stable, with balanced supply and demand in many markets.
The report concludes that resilience and diversity in supply chains will be essential for navigating both short- and long-term market shocks. Businesses that act decisively and strategically will be best placed to thrive in this evolving industrial landscape.
The full report, including regional breakdowns of rental levels, market conditions and vacancy projections, energy and labour cost comparisons, and analysis of demand drivers such as e-commerce and manufacturing, is available at Waypoint 2025.