A selection of “high street futurologists” led by the University of Southampton’s ESRC Retail Industry Business Engagement Network (RIBEN) assembled at CBRE to discuss the precarious state of the high street. There was widely acknowledged acceptance that the decline of the high street began before the economic crisis, a result of numerous and diverse factors. With the retail’s physical footprint reducing as online shopping increases in popularity, innovative solutions are required to keep town centres alive.
The conference was chaired by Neil Wrigley and Michelle Lowe (University of Southampton) and addressed by Ian Anderson (CBRE), Huw Williams (Chase and Partners), Bryan Roberts (Kantar Retail), John Timothy (Tesco), Will McKee (Accessible Retail), Steve Norris (Strategic Perspectives), Martin Blackwell (Association of Town Centre Management) and Mark Thurstain-Goodwin (Geofutures).
Opening the conference, Ian Anderson, Head of Retail Planning at CBRE, described the “perfect storm” which has led to the decline of the high street: unemployment / uncertainty, pressured disposable incomes and failing companies. It is estimated town centre shops fell by 15,000 pre-crisis (2000-2009) and a further 10,000 from 2009 to 2011, leading to the creation of a ‘cycle of vacancy’. Ian Anderson also described the impact of structural and social change – the rise of online an ‘omni-channel’ retailing, the smart phone generation and the way in which individuals both influence and are influenced via social media – contributing to ‘a generation of shoppers without shops’.
Ian Anderson commented, “Challenges to the high street include, sadly, an acceptance that some high streets may not survive. There is also a real need to adapt, focusing on strengths and USPs where possible, and also addressing new opportunities such as the potential of click and collect to increase footfall. But we must also re-imagine town centres, not just as places to shop but as places to live and to enjoy. The planning system, in particular the restrictive policies of local authorities in enabling physical change, must enable, rather than restrict, the evolution of the high street. For example the rigid insistence of some local authorities that shop fronts remain unaltered regardless of a building’s use, must be relaxed to allow a more sustainable mix.”
Some fascinating and often controversial points were made during the day’s discussion. Martin Blackwell of ATCM told the conference that in a typical local authority there are more staff to manage trees than to manage town centres. Martin Blackwell also provided an interesting insight from his son, that “You only go to the high street if you don’t know what you want”.
The north / south divide question was discussed at length, although it was acknowledged that there were numerous geographic “bubbles”. Additionally, it was widely felt that town centres are perhaps more complicated than first thought, with various mini climates existing in each. There was a strong feeling that there is no ‘one size fits all’ solution to the decline of the high street and that a lack of empirical research weakens location-specific strategies where they do exist.
There was a general consensus that town centre strategies cannot be purely retail led and that mixed uses, including the night time economy (a £55b sector which employs 1.2m people but was overlooked by the Portas Review); and yet perhaps local authorities are too ambitious in their regeneration-led visions for town centres.
As Bryan Roberts pointed out, retailing is the most democratic industry in the country: we have voted with our feet and we are beginning to get the high street that we deserve. In his summing up, Mark Thurstain-Goodwin suggested that high streets because we are all failing them, as individuals and as businesses.
On a more positive note, Ian Anderson presented an image of a successful high street of the future which featured public transport, pop up shops, charging points, convenience stores, serviced offices, a former shop front converted to a fitness studio, free wi fi, public spaces, free parking and integrated housing.
Professors Neil Wrigley & Michelle Lowe, who are leading both the University of Southampton’s retail research team and the ESRC-Tesco co-funded ‘High Street Futures’ project, thanked Ian Anderson for hosting the event and underlined that, at a time when the future of the high street is high on the government agenda, social science can play a significant role. That role includes providing high quality and transparent evidence-based research plus theory-based insights relating to the economic health of town centres and high streets and how those retail spaces may evolve in the future. Prof Neil Wrigley who was announced as a member of the newly-formed National ‘Future High Streets Forum’ chaired by Minister of State Mark Prisk MP and Alex Gourlay (Chief Executive, Health & Beauty Division, Alliance Boots) commented: “It is essential, as those policy responses emerge, that a considered and forward-looking academic exploration of how town centres and high-streets are evolving, may evolve in the future, and can be sustained, informs policy debate.”